A Chance But With High Risk
Report: September 2022
The only thing these illegal boat excursions are yielding, is death and sadness from their families’ part. Photo credit: Al-jazeera.
During this month, most Middle East nations succeeded in scoring positive results that would enforce their macroeconomic sustainability. Although the facts and figures look satisfactory, poverty is still an unsolved issue. Hopefully, the inbound investments and the job creation process can alleviate such a detriment. Also, this might help decrease the number of citizens attempting high-risk and illegal boat rides which end up sinking to the bottom of the sea.
1- The Socio-Economic Situation
Egypt
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 515,361
Deaths: 24,797
As of 10 September 2022, a total of 98,019,706 vaccine doses have been administered.
Egypt's economy grew 6.6 percent during the fiscal year 2021/2022. (Reuters).
During a cabinet meeting in the New Alamein City, Minister of Planning Hala al-Said announced that the economy has grown by 6.6 percent during the 2021/2022 year, despite the immense challenges Egypt is exposed to on the international arena. She added that mostly all economic sectors registered a remarkable improvement during the period: the restaurants and hotels sector saw a growth rate of 45.5 percent, the telecommunications sector grew by 16.3 percent, the Suez Canal by 11.7 percent, and the manufacturing industries by 9.9 percent. Concerning the unemployment rate the government has long been critisized for, she pointed it out that it has stabilized at 7.2 percent during the Q4 of the last fiscal year. She also presented statistics regarding Egypt’s trade balance by which Eyptian non-oil exports grew 57.8 percent, while non-oil imports increased 29 percent. Of course, its positive trade balance is due to petroleum exports rising by 122 percent, while petroleum imports only increasing by 53.4 percent.
Despite the positive macroeconomic indicators, still has a major internal challenge to tend to: overpopulation. Its rappidly growing population of 103 million is expected to increase by 1.6 million this year, with a total of 2.18 million births and about 600,000 deaths. According to Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly “We as Egyptians must pause and consider that we need to have a 10-year programme in which we limit births in young families to two children,”. More people means more burdens for the government. Such as an issue is increasingly problematic, especially when there are many conservative families who would prefer having a high number of siblings. Luckily enough, the government will soon launch a campaign to promote smaller families, and will draft parliamentary legislation to toughen penalties on adults behind the marriage of minors, child labour and pupils dropping out of the school system.
Jordan
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 1,745,032
Deaths: 14,116
As of 20 August 2022, a total of 10,057,975 vaccine doses have been administered..
US aid to Jordan has steadily increased due to growing ties. Photo credit: Al Araby.
With the signing of a historic agreement with the United States, Jordan will be benefiting from a large aid package that would bolster its economy. As such, 10 billion dollars, distributed across the next seven years, will be disbursed to Jordan. The funds will help the Hashemite Kingdom focus on reforms like improving essential public services, solving the country’s water crisis, and expanding economic opportunities in Jordan. Moreover, this 10-billion-dollar funding would finance projects which fall under the USAID in the country and the Jordanian military. The aid package is in line with His Majesty King Abdullah II’s efforts to modernize the kingdom. So far, Jordan has spared no effort in attracting Arab and International investment. A recent instance is the launching by The Jordan Chamber of Commerce (JCC), a Gulf-Jordanian Communication Forum that will bring together 120 stakeholders and investors from the Arab Gulf countries. Also, Jordan signed free trade agreements with the US and Canada, in addition to partnership agreements with Europe. As for the local front, the Kingdom adopted economic initiatives aimed at achieving comprehensive development while maintaining national food security. According to Senate President, Faisal Fayez, all such endeavors will contribute towards improving the lives of citizens of Jordan.
Iraq
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 2,459,178
Deaths: 25,352
As of 14 September 2022, a total of 19,181,396 vaccine doses have been administered.
Appraisal Drilling at Eridu field in Iraq Image source: Lukoil.
In an attempt to boost oil production, Iraq is seeking the development of Eridu oilfield which is located in Block 10. The planned project is awaiting ministerial approval on the joint development program with Russia’s Lukoil company. The development of West Qurna 2 field is also on the agenda as Iraq is trying to respond to increased demand. However, the recent violence observed the country is slowing down endeavors to produce more oil. This is the first time in Iraq’s turbulent history, political matters have affected the oil industry. Currently, different factions are fighting for political power as each group seeks to gain a greater hold on the country’s oil wealth, as well as political dominance in the Middle East region. According to Fernando Ferreira, a director at Rapidan Energy Group, the current political crisis is threatening to remove a million barrels per day off the market. Moreover, tensions are also skyrocketing between the Kurdistan region and Baghdad as the latter tries to claim oil revenue for its own. Earlier this year, Iraq’s federal court deemed an oil and gas law regulating the oil industry in Kurdistan unconstitutional. The Iraqi government has since increased its efforts to control the export of oil from the Kurdistan region. The whole situation has led oil firms to ask help from the US to break this paralysis between Kurdistan and Baghdad. They are trying to continue to operate in the country instead of relying on Russia and Iran for oil.
Lebanon
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 1,214,408
Deaths: 10,664
As of 18 September 2022, a total of 5,773,446 vaccine doses have been administered.
“Despite the urgency for action to address Lebanon’s deep economic and social crisis, progress in implementing the reforms agreed under the April SLA remains very slow” the IMF claimed. Photo credit: Sada El Balad.
An IMF mission headed by Mr. Ernesto Ramirez Rigo visited Lebanon to analyze the economic situation in the country and to realize progress- if any- towards much needed reforms. At the end of his visit he concluded that the country’s economy remains severly depressed with over 40% of its GDP contracted since 2018. According to the World Bank, GDP plunged to an estimated $20.5 billion in 2021 from about $55 billion in 2018, a kind of contraction associated with wars. Moreover, inflation remains a tripple digit number while Foreign Exchange reserves continue to decline. As for the value of Lebanon’s currency, it has depreciated to 38,000 LBP to the dollar. Amidst non-existent revenues and drastically reduced spending, public sector institutions are failing, and basic services to the population have been drastically reduced. Also, unemployment and poverty are at historically high rates. Despite the urgency to implement much needed reforms as agreed earlier in April of 2022, action remains to be seen. The IMF also noted that the existence of multiple exchange rates for the LBP creates significant distortions to economic activity, undermines the operations of the public sector, and creates opportunities for corruption. This undoubtly leads to excessive pressure on FX reserves which have been already depleted.
Meanwhile the risk of conflict at the border continues to stir talking heads as demarcation deal remains to be seen. As the need for gas energy is increasing in Europe, signing a deal is becoming apparent. However, the presence of non-state actors and the prevalance of proxy conflict in the region, is exacerbating the risk of a confrontation. For now, negotiations have been managed by the US which seems to relay optimistic vibes. Nevertheless, should the US fail to bring about a good deal, Lebanon will have to suffer from a costly war that it cannot handle.
Palestine
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 702,768
Deaths: 5,707
As of 8 August 2022, a total of 3,741,181 vaccine doses have been administered.
Palestinians could face increases of up to 80 per cent in the cost of bread, flour and vegetable oil. Photo credit: The National News.
According to the “National” magazine, Palestine’s GDP is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2022. This is due to the continued recovery in private consumption amid the complete easing of Covid-19-related restrictions. Moreover, the World Bank has indicated a rise in the number of Palestinians working in Israel. As for inflation it has been measured to be 3.6 per cent for the full year amid higher food and fuel prices, while the government starts to pay partial salaries to public employees thus leading to a decline in public consumption. The Washington-based lender warned that if prices continue rise at such rates, the price of bread, flour and vegetable oil could increase by 80% by January 2023. Of course such a phenomenon will harm low-income households more than high-income. As for unemployment, it reached 13.8% in the April-June period in the West Bank. Meanwhile unemployment reached 44.1 per cent in Gaza. The World Bank also noted that the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) fiscal deficit declined by 70 per cent in the first half of 2022. Although the PA has decreased its reliance on burrowing from domestic banks, it still account for close to 40 per cent of total banking sector credit. Meanwhile, the PA’s deficit is expected to reach $770 million in 2022.
Syria
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 57,253
Deaths: 3,163
As of 12 September 2022, a total of 4,649,982 vaccine doses have been administered.
Yet again the Syrian Pound loses its value thus diminishing the purchasing power of Syrians. Photo credit: Aawsat.com.
On the 19th of September, the Syrian central bank weakened its official exchange rate to 3,015 Syrian pounds to the dollar while black market rates used for most economic activity sat around 4,440. Moreover, hundreds of state employees across various sectors – from agriculture, water, and industry to education and healthcare – have resigned or submitted their resignations due to exorbitant transportation costs, meagre wages, and better opportunities in the private sector or abroad. Also, subsidized petrol price has surged despite stable oil from Iran. As such, the government increased the price of petrol by up to 127 percent, which has immediately impacted the cost of transportation and food. All of this is increasing the economic burdens on the Syrian citizen.
Although these events are a reflection of dire state the Syrian economy is in, the country is accomplishing feats of progress that must be taken into consideration. One instance is its export of a notable amount of phosphates to Iran in return for hefty sum of revenues. Moreover, the Syrian government recently began operating a new water desalination plant in the Hassakeh governorate in an effort to provide potable water to residents. Also, new electricity projects were launched in the Aleppo governorate. Furthermore, the government established the country’s first development zone where industrialists in the zone are offered significant tax waivers and non-tax advantages. Another move that would benefit the economy is the establishment of an Iraqi-Syrian business council that would boost and regulate economic bilateral trade.
Cyprus
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 585,313
Deaths: 1,180
As of 3 September 2022, a total of 1,817,732 vaccine doses have been administered.
Despite external challenges, the Cypriot economy remains in top shape. Photo credit: Cyprus Mail.
According to the Central Bank of Cyprus, the country’s macroeconomic conditions will be favorable in the second half of 2022. This means that the GDP will increase by 5.5% due to the booming tourism industry. Although the growth was affected by a turbulent energy market, the economy still managed to perform well enough. With the increase in domestic demand, inbound investments, private consumption, the economy is expected to incur sustainable growth. Another factor in terms of the improvement in economic performance has been the contribution of the information technology and communication sector, something which has been further stimulated by the increase of international technology in Cyprus. As for unemployment, it is expected to fall to 6.7 per cent in 2022, from 7.5 per cent in 2021. Moreover, a downward trend is predicted in the following years, with unemployment reaching 6.5 per cent in 2023, before reaching 5.9 per cent in 2024. In terms of inflation however, the central bank reported that this is expected to increase significantly in 2022, rising to 8.4 per cent from 2.3 per cent in 2021. It is expected to remain close to 9% till the end of this year as the war in Ukraine drags on.
2- The Refugee Situation
Egypt
A mental health consultancy for refugees in Egypt has been launched by the IOM. The activities will focus on female migrants specifically survivors of GBV and migrant ladies with mental health special needs.[1]
Jordan
The UNHCR states that there are currently 676,496 registered refugees in Jordan up until the beginning of September.
The proportion of Syrian displaced people registered within the UNHCR for September, are distributed as follows:
-201,373 in Amman Governorate (29.8 %)
-170,199 in Mafraq Governorate (25.2%)
-136,250 in Irbid Governorate (20.2%)
-98,910 in Zarqa Governorate (14.6%)
-17,921 in Balqa Governorate (2.7%)
-13,335 in Madaba Governorate (2%)
-9,172 in Jarash Governorate (1.4%)
-8,607 in Karak Governorate (1.3%)
-8,417 in Maan Governorate (1.2%)
-6,349 in Ajlun Governorate (0.9%)
-3,799 in Aqaba Governorate (0.6%)
-1,622 in Tafilah Governorate (0.2%)
According to Euro-med Monitor, over 750,000 refugees risk facing a stifling humanitarian crisis due to lack of funding.[2]
The UN Special Rapporteur on the rights of persons with disabilities, Gerard Quinn, conducted an official visit to Jordan from 5 to 15 September 2022. The visit provided an important opportunity to assess the implementation of human rights standards in place to protect the rights of persons with disabilities in the country.[3]
Iraq
The UNHCR states that there are currently 265,384 registered Syrian refugees in Iraq.
The proportion of displaced Syrian people registered within the UNHCR up until the beginning of September, are distributed as follows:
-133,773 in Erbil (50.4%)
-85,498 in Dahuk (32.2%)
-34,689 in Sulaymaniyah (13.1%)
-1,662 in Anbar (0.6%)
-9,762 in other areas (3.7%)[4]
Save the Children released a report titled “A Childhood of Fear” detailing the impact of the Genocide on Yazidi children in Sinjar. It is an eye opener for the international community to step up humanitarian aid for the sake of these children.[5]
With the humanitarian diplomacy efforts of the government of Turkey and Iraq and IHH Humanitarian Relief Foundation, 161 Iraqi refugees have found their way back home.[6]
Lebanon
[For the Month of September, no updates pertaining the distribution of Syrian refugees have been registered.]
Since July, the number of registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon is 831,053.
Refugees in Lebanon are distributed as follows:
-325,596 in Bekaa (39.2%)
-227,860 in North Lebanon (27.4%)
-186,897 in Beirut (22.5%)
-90,700 in South Lebanon (10.9%)[7]
Eighty-six bodies have been recovered since a boat carrying migrants from Lebanon sunk off Syria's coast, in one of the deadliest recent such shipwrecks in the eastern Mediterranean.[8]
As pressure continues to mount on affected people in Lebanon and vulnerabilities continue to deepen day after day, it was announced that the Lebanon Humanitarian Fund (LHF) has allocated US$8 million to meet urgent needs and enhance preparedness ahead of the fast-approaching winter[9].
The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) welcomes a generous contribution of US$ 700,000 from the Republic of Korea to support its in-kind food assistance and school meals programmes.[10]
Syria
According to Save the Children, thousands of children across eastern and northern Syria are at risk from a rapidly spreading outbreak of cholera caused by water shortages linked to climate change and conflict and the use of contaminated water from the Euphrates River.[11]
The Syria Recovery Trust Fund (SRTF) announced the completed delivery of an extra 920 MT of soft wheat in the North of Aleppo Governorate.[12]
The Syria Recovery Trust Fund (SRTF) announced the start of civil and construction works for its electricity project “Sustainable Solar Energy Supply Systems for Water Pumping Stations in Rural Areas of North Aleppo – Phase I” in Northern Aleppo.
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield announced the United States is providing more than $756 million in humanitarian assistance for the people of Syria at the United Nations Security Council Meeting on the Political and Humanitarian Situation in Syria.[13]
The SRTF announced the delivery of medical equipment to five primary health care clinics and two dialysis centres supported under its Health intervention “Support to Five Primary Health Care Clinics and Two Dialysis Centres in Deir-ez-Zor and Ar-Raqqa Governorates” in Deir-ez-Zor and Ar-Raqqa.[14]
Cyprus
According to a Cypriot official Cyprus has assisted in rescue of a small wooden boat crammed with more than 300 migrants that was floating adrift 203 kilometers (126 miles) west of the island nation.[15]
Communication and Public Relations Department
[1] OCHA, Sept 23, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/job/3888515/mental-health-documentary-content-producer
[2] OCHA, Shttps://reliefweb.int/report/jordan/jordan-over-750000-refugees-risk-facing-stifling-humanitarian-crisis-due-lack-funding
[3]OCHA, Sept 6, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/jordan/jordan-un-expert-assess-human-rights-persons-disabilities
[4] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/5
[5] OCHA, Sept 22, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/childhood-fear-impact-genocide-yazidi-children-sinjar
[6] OCHA, Sept 21, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/161-iraqi-refugees-have-found-their-way-back-home
[7] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/71
[8] Naharnet, Sept 24, 2022, https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/292670-death-toll-from-lebanese-migrant-boat-tragedy-rises-to-86
[9] OCHA, Sep 13, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/lebanon-humanitarian-fund-lhf-allocates-8-million-address-urgent-needs-enar
[10]OCHA, Sep 16, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/korea-continues-help-wfp-supporting-lebanese-families-amidst-ongoing-economic-crisis
[11]OCHA, Sept 20, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/childrens-health-and-education-risk-severe-cholera-outbreak-spreads-syria
[12] OCHA, Sep 18, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/srtf-food-security-project-received-its-last-batch-wheat
[13] OCHA, Sep 14, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/united-states-provides-more-756-million-humanitarian-assistance-meet-emergency-needs-syria-amid-global-food-crisis
[14] OCHA, Sept 12, 2022,https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/srtf-health-project-receives-medical-equipment-northeast-syria
[15] Aawsat, September 13, 2022, https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3884651/cyprus-helps-rescue-300-migrants-aboard-italy-bound-boat-lebanon