Towards a Better Future
Report August 2022
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi welcomes Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi at the airport of Alamein military base, Aug. 22, 2022. - Iraqi Prime Minister's Media office
Introduction
With tensions brewing in other parts of the world, the Middle East, with the exception of Lebanon and Occupied Palestine, seem to be heading towards a future lit with cooperation. This is evident from the Arab Summit which was held on the 22nd of August in which five Arab states convened to discuss several regional issues including Palestine. The general atmosphere was positive and the attendees focused on cooperation especially in the energy and food security domain.
1. THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SITUATION
Egypt
Street lights and outdoor illuminations in Cairo are off after 11 p.m, photo credit: Mohamed Hossam, picture alliance.
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 515,264
Deaths: 24,791
As of 14 August 2022, a total of 96,535,551 vaccine doses have been administered.
As economic pressure is intensifying on Egypt, the government is seeking to raise a loan worth 2.5 billion USD. Currently it is conducting talks with regional and international banks about details of the financing. However, whether the loan will be given or not is still undertermined. What is do known, however, is that urgency is building up for Egypt’s 400 billion dollar economy; it needs to secure more foreign currency as it seeks to plug certain deficits. The international rise in commodity and fuel prices have hit hard Egypt, which is one of the largest wheat importers in the world. Due to the conlict between Ukraine and Russia, its tourism industry has tanked. Moreover, the war has put pressure on Egypt’s foreign currency reserves. During July, Egypt's statistic agency CAPMAS released data that showed annual urban consumer inflation accelerated to a higher-than-expected 13.6% year-on-year in July from 13.2% in June. At the end of the day, Egypt is hoping to gather 41 billion USD to pay for its current account deficit and maturing debt by end of 2023. For the time being, it had succeeded in attracting 22 billion USD from Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar.
Egypt also considered a new strategy to decrease public expenditures; it introduced a new set of austerity measures that saw the decrease in lighting on the streets, shops, and malls. Air conditioning in malls was also limited to a 25 degrees Celsius instead of below 20 degrees Celsius. According to Egypt's Prime Minister Mustafa Madbouly, the new plan aims to cut domestic gas expenditure only to sell that quantity to external buyers. In this way, 15% of the of the country's domestic electricity consumption will be cut, and the gas used to generate the electricity will be exported at a price ten times higher. Concequently, the new plan will allow it to finance its expensive and extensive subsidy program for many staple goods.
Jordan
A general view of the Metlaoui phosphate production plant in Metaloui, Tunisia February 8, 2019. Reuters Images/Zoubeir Souissi.
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 1,731,549.
Deaths: 14,105
As of 6 August 2022, a total of 10,040,301 vaccine doses have been administered.
During August, Jordan succeeded in scoring a set of economic achievements that would enhance the country’s self-resiliency. Jordan's Telecommunications Regulatory Commission (TRC) signed deals with two telecom operators to introduce 5G services in the kingdom. According to Bassam Sarhan, the endeavor should accelerate production processes, develop new business models and enable innovation and entrepreneurship. Moreover, Jordan was able to record an increase by 3% in its renewable energy share. Now, renewable energy sources contribute 29 percent to the total power generation in the country up from 26 percent during the same period last year. To further make use of its natural resources, the government inaugurated a factory that will wash and float phosphate in Al Sheidiyeh in Amman with an investment volume of $85 million. The project will aim to transform low quality phosphate into high quality phosphate thus making it ready for export. According to the Jordan Phosphate Mines Company handling the construction of the factory, the project will provide 250 direct jobs and some 2,000 indirect jobs in sectors like transport and logistics services.
Iraq
Yet again, Iraq has succeeded in exporting impressive quantities of oil for an elevated price. Photo credit: Atalayar.com
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 2,456,555
Deaths: 25,343
As of 8 August 2022, a total of 19,000,211 vaccine doses have been administered.
For the fourth consecutive month, Iraq has been able to achieve substantial revenues from its oil export. Driven by the war in Ukraine and the increase in international oil prices, Iraq achieved significant economic successes. Although the current price of oil is lower than that of march, revenues are still considered impressive, giving the country a good economic standing; till today it is still being able to pump 3.3 million barrels of oil to foreign markets. The Russia-Ukraine war also prompted Iraq to look into other areas where it can develop its economy. For instance, fertilizer prices have soared since the onset of the war, giving the British company AAA Holding the opportunity to begin fertilizer production in Basra in cooperation Iraq’s Southern Fertilizer Public Company. The newly announced venture, will allow Iraq to produce 500,000 tons of fertilizer annually. To accommodate the country’s improving economy Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhmi announced the reconstruction of the $150 million Mosul airport in the Nineveh governorate. Seemingly, this is part of the post-war reconstruction effort promised by the Iraqi government. The project is set to increase the country’s flight travels, logistics, and cargo transportation in the region.
Lebanon
The world awaits how events will unfold between Occupied Palestine and Lebanon. Photo credit: Lebanon Debate.
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 1,205,169
Deaths: 10,609
As of 14 August 2022, a total of 5,733,532 vaccine doses have been administered.
A day before the 2nd anniversary anniversary of the August 4 explosion, the World Bank released a report about the dire economic crisis in Lebanon. Titled “Ponzi Finance” the report was added to a list of other publications that considered Lebanon’s situation as ‘deliberate’. The report exclaimed that new investors were paid high interest rates from old investors and funds were misused and mispent over a course of 30 years. The World Bank specifically blamed the government for accumulating more debt than it should and using public services for the benefit of certain individuals. The country’s elite used state resources for private gains, by weakening public services and allowing certain private companies to take the lead. For this reason certain lucrative deals such as private trash collection or private generators were made in the country over the past years. The World Bank also restated what it had published in 2020 concerning a debt restructuring program, an infrastructure development package, and measures against corruption and inefficiency in the public sector. Nevertheless, all recommendations have fallen on deaf ears so far.
Meanwhile, border tensions are continuing to rise. Either a deal will be made thus allowing peace to reign in the region or things might go in to the opposite direction. Either way Lebanon is not benefitting from the war of words. Should a war breakout, Lebanon would be placed in a position worse off than its currently in. The deplorable situation in the country might affect the stability of the region as numorous stakeholders will become involved. For the time being, all eyes are fixated on Amos Hochstein’s endeavor for diplomatic dialogue. Either much is to be gained or all is lost.
Palestine
Palestinian children salvage their belongings from the rubble of their house in Gaza, which was destroyed during the latest three-day conflict with Israel [File: Said Khatib/AFP
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 698,384
Deaths: 5,694
As of 8 August 2022, a total of 3,741,181 vaccine doses have been administered.
As the ceasefire takes effect in Palestine, the situation is still volatile forcing all parties to be on alert for any changes on the ground. Luckily for now, a truce has been declared between the wary parties allowing much needed commodities to resume entering Gaza. The opening of Kerem Shalom crossing paved the way for fuel trucks to enter Gaza enabling the area’s power plant to resume normal operations. With the absence of a concrete political solution, the cycle of violence might restart thus leaving Gaza facing another set of sieges and blockades by the Israeli authorities.
Despite all this Palestine was able to score a major advancement that would benefit its digital economy: Liverpool-based electronic signature service provider E-Sign, signed a contract with Palestinian Ministry of Telecommunications and IT. Funded by the World Bank, the project would allow Palestinian citizens to take advantage of digital infrastructure and access digital services, as well as education, health, agriculture and governmental services. E-sign will take into account three areas of work, delivering across legal and regulatory, emergency response and citizen-based digital services. As such, this is a notable win for Palestine which has been trying to develop its digital economy over the past years. In this way, Palestine can reap the benefits of an economy that is not controlled –to a lesser degree- by Israel.
Syria
Young men carry bread as they walk along a street in Jaramana, Syria, Jan. 25, 2022. CNS photo/Yamam al Shaar, Reuters
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 56,902
Deaths: 3,162
As of 8 August 2022, a total of 4,494,350 vaccine doses have been administered.
On August 2, the exchange rate of the Syrian pound fell to SYP 4,210 against the US dollar on the black market, recording its lowest rate since March 2021. Such a phenomenon reflects the dire state the Syrian economy is in and worsening conditions the country is facing: Around 90% of Syrians are poor and more than 80% are food insecure. A similar percentage of Syrians lack access to electricity with many households receiving just one hour of power per day. While the current government is not entirely blameless for Syria’s woes, foreign intervention has placed Syria in its current state. Till today, the Caesar Act still besieges the Syrian economy while several foreign-backed armed groups reap the country’s resources. Even so, any country with the best government would find the situation difficult to maneuver through. So far, the United Nations and other non-governmental actors have asked for the sanctions to be lifted as they have impacted ordinary civilians to massive extent. Unfortunately, such measures remain in place.
Despite all the obstacles that stand in Syria’s ways, the government is continuously creating new opportunities to maneuver past all difficulties. For instance, it has allowed treasury bonds to be traded on the market. This decision should attract investors and the inflow of foreign capital into Syria. This in turn might lead to the strengthening of Syria’s local currency. On the administrative level, the President removed Damascus and Hassakeh governors and six other governors only to replace them. This reshuffle might steer Syria in a new direction and allow the new governors to formulate policies in accordance to what the country really needs. On the regional level, Syria joined a meeting with Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan over the establishment of joint agricultural ventures. Such a move will allow the contributing countries to jointly access external markets and better market their agricultural products.
Cyprus
Ministry of Finance. Photo credit: financialmirror.com
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 574,124
Deaths: 1,152
As of 30 July 2022, a total of 1,814,473 vaccine doses have been administered.
Despite the ongoing war in Eastern Europe, Cyprus’s economy is projected to grow by more than 5% in 2022. What’s more, Moody’s, a major credit agency, changed the outlook of Cyprus from stable to positive, stating that the economy is resilient and can overcome different challenges. According to the Finance Ministry, the current rating is due to strong reduction in Cyprus’s public debt, the strengthening of the banking sector, the absorption of EU funding, and the implementation of economic reforms. Moreover, it is the tourism industry that is allowing Cyprus to score more positive results. According to CyStat data, 454,657 visitors came for a Cyprus holiday in July, up 52.9% from 297,308 in July 2021.
All these indicators provided Cyprus with the necessary tools to initiate a major reboot of its economy. In addition to the positive economic forecasts, Cyprus has discovered new gas reserves within its territory in in the Cronos-1 well drilled in Block 6, 160 km off the Cyprus coastline. This will surely translate into economic viability as Europe is keen on reducing its reliance on Russian gas exports, and increasing its reliance on gas reserves transported through the Mediterranean.
3. THE REFUGEE SITUATION
Egypt
· In its latest assessment of migrant stocks in Egypt, IOM revealed that the current number of international migrants residing in Egypt is 9,012,582 migrants, which is equivalent to 8.7% of the Egyptian population (103,655,989).[1]
Jordan
The UNHCR states that there are currently 676,164 registered refugees in Jordan up until the beginning of August.
The proportion of Syrian displaced people registered within the UNHCR for August, are distributed as follows:
201,128 in Amman Governorate (29.8 %)
170,104 in Mafraq Governorate (25.2%)
136,158 in Irbid Governorate (20.2%)
98,893 in Zarqa Governorate (14.6%)
18,018 in Balqa Governorate (2.7%)
13,369 in Madaba Governorate (2%)
9,186 in Jarash Governorate (1.4%)
8,628 in Karak Governorate (1.3%)
8,337 in Maan Governorate (1.2%)
6,381 in Ajlun Governorate (0.9%)
3,826 in Aqaba Governorate (0.6%)
1,647 in Tafilah Governorate (0.2%)
· The United Nations World Food Program will cut food stipends to hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees in Jordan by a third, partly due to having to accommodate aid requirements stemming from the war in Ukraine.[2]
· According to the UNHCR, 12,000 refugee families eligible for benefits in Jordan, did not receive the cash assistance this July due to limited funding.[3]
Iraq
The UNHCR states that there are currently 262,756 registered Syrian refugees in Iraq.
The proportion of displaced Syrian people registered within the UNHCR up until the beginning of July, are distributed as follows:
132,614 in Erbil (50.5%)
85,628 in Dahuk (32.6%)
34,213in Sulaymaniyah (13%)
1,587 in Anbar (0.6%)
8,714 in other areas (3.3%)[4]
· According to the World Health Organization (WHO), cholera was detected in the Ashti Internally Displaced Peoples’ (IDP) camp.[5]
· According to The Ministry of Migration and Displacement spokesman, Ali Abbas Jahakir, claimed that the total number of displaced families has reached 900,000, adding that about 600,000 of them have returned home.[6]
Lebanon
[For the Month of August, no updates pertaining the distribution of Syrian refugees have been registered.]
Since July, the number of registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon is 831,053.
Refugees in Lebanon are distributed as follows:
325,596 in Bekaa (39.2%)
227,860 in North Lebanon (27.4%)
186,897 in Beirut (22.5%)
90,700 in South Lebanon (10.9%)[7]
· The Lebanese minister of the displaced has said Syrian refugees must be sent from Lebanon back to their country of origin, despite a lack of international financial support for Beirut's plan to deport them.[8]
· The UNHCR released a statement denouncing the increased tensions between different groups, especially violence against refugees, which leads to escalating violent acts on the ground in many districts and neighborhoods.[9]
· Harjit S. Sajjan, Minister of International Development and Minister responsible for the Pacific Economic Development Agency of Canada announced 5 million USD for the benefit of UN women to increase women’s participation as leaders.[10]
Syria
· Renewed violence hit northeast Syria on Friday 19 August, despite the ceasefire in place since March 2020. 19 civilians are confirmed dead and many more injured in 2 separate incidents across the region.
· WHO, together with the Relief Experts Association UDER as implementing agency, has bolstered the provision of primary health care services in northwest Syria by rendering the facilities in the towns of Sarmada, Tarmanin, Daret Azza and Zarzour fully operational.[11]
· The SRTF announced the inauguration of two new bakeries built and fully equipped under its multi-phased food security project in the North of Aleppo Governorate.[12]
· Italy has contributed 2 million euros to the World Health Organization to support efforts to vaccinate 40% of the targeted population in Syria by the end of 2022.[13]
· The SRTF delivers 8000 food rations & 3,000 tents to nine camps under its Emergency Rapid Plan (ERP) in Aleppo. [14]
Cyprus
· According to Info Migrants, the number of migrants entering the Greek part of Cyprus is considerably rising. For instance, in one day at least 120 migrants were caught trying to enter Cyprus. As such, fears are growing that Cyprus will end up a new destination for thousands of migrants.[15]
[1] OCHA, August 17, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/egypt/iom-egypt-estimates-current-number-international-migrants-living-egypt-9-million-people-originating-133-countries
[2] The National News, August 18, 2022, https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/2022/08/18/un-to-cut-food-aid-for-syrian-refugees-in-jordan-amid-huge-funding-shortfall/
[3] Alaraby, July 31, 2022, https://english.alaraby.co.uk/news/12000-refugee-families-jordan-received-no
[4] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/5
[5] OCHA, July 7, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/iraq-cholera-epidemic-emergency-plan-action-epoa-dref-ndeg-mdriq015
[6] Aawsat, July 5, 2022, https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3741346/600000-displaced-families-return-home-iraq
[7] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/71
[8] Al Araby, August 20, 2022, https://english.alaraby.co.uk/news/lebanon-urges-syrian-refugee-deportations-despite-outcry
[9] Arab News, July 30, 2022, https://www.arabnews.com/node/2132631/middle-east
[10] OCHA, August 19, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/minister-sajjan-concludes-trip-lebanon-and-announces-5-million-international-assistance-un-women
[11] OCHA, August 21, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/who-and-uder-implement-multi-partner-project-boost-primary-health-care-services-northwest-syria
[12]OCHA, August 18, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/srtf-food-security-project-inaugurates-two-bakeries-northern-aleppo
[13] OCHA, August 17, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/italy-bolsters-who-efforts-enhance-covid-19-vaccination-syria
[14] OCHA, August 11, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/srtf-delivers-8000-food-rations-3000-tents-nine-camps-under-its-emergency-rapid-plan-erp-aleppo
[15] Info Migrants, July 27, 2022, https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/42186/cyprus-reports-a-rise-in-migrant-arrivals