A Boiling Summer
Report: August 2023
Children gather to fill bottles and jerrycans with the little water left in the container at one of Arsaal Syrian Refugee camps (ICRC).
During August, the Middle East witnessed an unbearable heatwave that left climate experts warning of the disastrous consequences climate change is leaving behind. The fact that experts have warned we are no longer in a ‘Global Warming Stage’ and we are now actually in a ‘Boiling Stage’, sent shivers down everyone’s spine, humanitarian actors in particular. As such during these difficult circumstances, refugees and IDPs are forced to deal with elevated temperatures while water scarcity is increasingly becoming an issue in the region. In other words, refugees will have to face elevated heat levels from the environment and the ramifications of the ‘political heat’ between major powers.
1- The Socio-Economic Situation
Egypt
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
-Confirmed cases: 516,023
-Deaths: 24,830
-As of 20 May 2023, a total of 112,673,535 vaccine doses have been administered.
A worker stacks steel pipes in Ahmedabad November 4, 2014. REUTERS/Amit Dave/File Photo
When compared to the rest of the MENA region, Egypt is known for its reliable power supplies that is suffecient to provide electricity to 112 million people. However, electricity cuts and rolling blackouts as a result of the menacing heat wave, have surprised everyone. This highlighted the electricity infrastructure is in poor condition and is unable to handle the extra electricity consumption and the elevated temperatures. To make matters worse, Egypt is financially in a difficult situation, preventing it from undertaking necessary repairs and by replacement for the electricity grid. The Central Bank data showed that net foreign assets held by Egypt’s commercial banks reached a record deficit in June amid a lack of foreign currency inflows. In other words, Egypt is suffering from a financial crisis that is impacting the country’s ability to spend across several sectors. Along with record inflation and a sharp weakening of the currency, the outages have become a potent symptom of the worst economic crisis to hit Egypt since 2014. Moreover, the country's economic troubles have ignited frustration among many Egyptians, who consider their living standards degrade as authorities focus on expensive mega projects. There is no doubt that Egypt’s woes have been aggravated by the state of the global economy and the Ukrainian crisis, as socioeconomic conditions have declined world wide and food-shortage have worsened in certain areas. Yet, Egypt still has potential to maneuver past all the challenges through adequate reform and the liberalization of public enterprises from military control.
Although Egyptians are frustrated about the current state of affairs, Egypt and its partners are making sure food security will remain a top priority. For this reason, a UAE-based agribusiness, and the Abu Dhabi Export Office (ADEX) have signed a five-year agreement worth $500 million to finance Egypt's wheat imports. A yearly 100 million USD of high quality imported milling wheat go to Egypt per year at favorable prices. According to Egyptian Minister for Supply and International Trade Dr. Ali Al-Moselhy, the deal would allow Egypt to withstand any unexpected shocks in the global markets.
Also, new job-providing investment projects are continously being advertised. For instance, Russian company "Novostal M", which is specialized in steel manufacturing, has expressed its interest in investing in Egypt across various sectors, including steel and infrastructure for certain sectors. This will not only provide jobs for thousands of Egyptians but will improve the country’s production capabilities and allow it to adress root problems related to the industrial sector.
Jordan
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
-Confirmed cases: 1,746,997
-Deaths: 14,122
-As of 20 August 2022, a total of 10,057,975 vaccine doses have been administered.
New projects are continuously being injected into Jordan’s economy. Photo credit: Arab News.
Because of Jordan’s new law designed to encourage more funds into the country, Jordan’s economy saw a 47.6 percent rise in investments in the first half of 2023. The investments amounted to $844.8 million in the first six months of the year, a substantial increase when compared to 2022. The Ministry of Investment’s efforts to put in place strategic plans to attract new funding streams and further amplify current ones, has beared fruit. What allowed Jordan to succeed in the whole process, is the ministry’s cooperation with both the public and private sectors. Such a model has proven to be effective in the Western world and its application has led to the streamlining of the economy. Jordan’s adherence to the policies of the Economic Modernization Vision 2033, assured prospective investors that the country can guarantee a favoribale return on investment. According to research submitted by investing companies, projects are expected to generate a sizable workforce, with an estimated 15,200 employment prospects. To demonstrate to companies that the country is moving forward in liberalizing its economy, the ministry also launched a number of promotional and marketing tools, such as the Jordanian debut of the innovative portal Invest.Jo, which acts as a resource for investors. With such endevours being carried out, Jordan’s economy stands well-positioned for sustainable growth and prosperity. For the time being, investments, for the most part, are of moderate value. However, there is no doubt that such developments will entice states to launch mega-projects that will leave a mark on Jordan’s economy.
Iraq
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
-Confirmed cases: 2,465,545
-Deaths: 25,375
-As of 1 January 2023, a total of 19,557,364 vaccine doses have been administered.
The Iraqi President, Abdul Latif Rashid, and the Chinese Ambassador to Iraq, discussing ways to enhance cooperation between the two countries. Cui Wei. Photo: Iraqi Presidency
So far, the Iraqi economy has been improving thanks to its impressive reserve of fuel resources. Yet, the Iraqi economy remains to be undiversified and susceptible to outside shocks when not much progress has been made in that regard. Nevertheless, Iraq has great potential for attracting foreign investment especially when its leaders are working on strengthening the country’s bilateral and multilateral economic and political ties. For instance, it was a step forward when Iraq signed 11 memorandums of understanding with Egypt in June, covering several sectors, including tourism, finance, administrative development and diplomacy. Such a positive development alone can allow Egyptian companies to invest in Iraq. Concequently, Iraq can use its oil in exchange for other services that Egypt can provide, such as participating in the construction of its infrastructure. Similarly, Iraq signed a multilateral cooperation agreement with Jordan and Egypt, which focuses on deeper economic integration. Each country within the alliance should benefit in the commercial, security and financial sectors. To address the issue of the electricity shortage, Iraq signed with total Energies a $27 billion agreement which is considered the largest foreign investment in Iraq’s history. This should reduce Iraq’s reliance on gas imports from Iran and alleviate tensions between Washington and Baghdad over Tehran. Another effective way of improving the economy is the creating of local jobs through launching construction projects. The Iraqi parliament in June approved a development projects budget of 198.9 trillion dinars ($153 billion) for 2023 to enhance services and rebuild its infrastructure. In doing so it has proceeded in the process of job creation for thousands of Iraqis who are finding it difficult to attain a job.
Lebanon
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
-Confirmed cases: 1,239,904
-Deaths: 10,947
-As of 21 December 2022, a total of 5,814,699 vaccine doses have been administered.
Lebanon’s disgraced Banque du Liban Governor Riad Salameh stepped down after a 30-year tenure [File: Mohamed Azakir/Reuters]
Now that former Banque du Liban Governor Riad Salameh is out of office after a 30-year tenure, Lebanon moved forward in appointing Wassim Mansouri as interim Governor for the Central Bank of Lebanon. He was later appointed as vice governor of the bank, after political factions failed to appoint a successor to Salameh. This was a pratical move seeing that factions have no problem leaving Lebanon without a governor which will cause the country to fall into a deeper financial crisis. One of the first acts the new leadership plans to impose, are severe restrictions on the central bank’s lending to the government and that to gradually stop funding in its entirety. Mansouri also plans to remove the controversial Sayrafa Platform and lift the peg on the local currency. Unfortunately no progress has been achieved so far in that area, as two main parties are against holding any parliamentary sessions for voting on these laws until the country has a president in place. Nevertheless, Mansouri seemes determined about not approving any government financing which he does not approve off and which was not clearly mentioned in law. He also mentioned setting up a capital control law, a financial restructuring law and a 2023 state budget within six months. Although the acting Governor is determined to alleviate the burdens of the economic crisis, time is ticking for the tiny mediteranian country. Analysts are warning further collapse as the country continues to endure a financial meltdown. Meanwhile, four years have passed without a single draft financial reform act becoming law.. According to the IMF, If the status quo among the Lebanese political elite continues, public debt could reach 547 percent of GDP by 2027. Failure to tackle such an issue so can take the nation from one crisis to another.
Palestine
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
-Confirmed cases: 703,228
-Deaths: 5,708
-As of 17 October 2022, a total of 3,748,571 vaccine doses have been administered
Palestinians shop at a market in the old city of Bethlehem in the occupied West Bank. The IMF says per capita income this year is expected to decline as economic growth slows. AFP
Amidst security concerns that Israel might choose to launch special operations targeting Palestinian leaders, the alarm is being sounded about the Palestine’s dire economy. According to the International Monetary Fund, high unemployment and poverty have reached drastic levels and are pulling the economy down. Also, the lack of reforms as well as the menacing financial, political, and security crises are preventing the Palestinian economy to grow. Also, macroeconomic fragilities which have been left unsolved over the years, made the economy reliant on foreign assistance and grants. To make things even more problematic, fiscal policies remain to be broadly unchanged making the Palestinian Authority unable to be self-reliant and to deliver the basic services to Palestinians. Moreover, debts continue to accumulate, and without substantial adjustment policies, public debt remains unsustainable. Therefore, the IMF stressed the importance of the international community, Israel, and the Palestinian authority to come together to solve critical matters such as the Israeli-imposed restrictions on movement, access, and investment and the siege on Gaza. Unfortunately, the IMF’s statements only fall on deaf ears as the Israeli authorities seem unwilling to address such an issue. So far, Israel’s authoritative management of the situation and the expansion of settlements have only demonstrated the Zionist entity’s drive for control, power and territorial expansion. Unless a harsher approach, such as internationally approved sanctions, are used to tackle Israel’s vile actions, the notorious aggressor will continue to make Palestinians’ life a misery.
Syria
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
-Confirmed cases: 57,423
-Deaths: 3,163
-As of 15 January 2023, a total of 5,090,630 vaccine doses have been administered
Despite the Syrian Pound dropping to new lows, the Syrian government is promising things will be better in the future. Photo credit: https://www.mei.edu/
Despite the resumption of ties between Syria and the rest of the Arab countries, and Syria rejoining the Arab League, there has been little change on the economic front, where the situation remains dire. Since the start of May this year, the Syrian pound has dwindled to new lows without any sign of stabilizing. The pound currently stands at 15,500 to the dollar, an all-time low. Despite all the improvements when it comes to inter-state relations, the greatest weakness remains its ailing economy, unable to rise from the ashes of war. Western sanctions have made the situation even more thornier, as Washington and some of its allies are keen on keeping the economic pressure on this particular country. There has been much discussion about whether that the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other reconciled countries would help to steady the Syrian pound by providing financial assistance. However, the U.S. Caesar Act sanctions, which is also problematic for Gulf countries on an operational and diplomatic level, has made the country even more financially unstable. Most raw materials that Syria relies on for its economy are linked to the dollar. This alone has forced the government to raise prices on several products to counter the ramifications of shortage in dollars. Meanwhile the depreciation of the Syrian pound is causing unrest among regime loyalists, causing parts of the country to distance themselves from the Syrian currency and use illegal foreign currencies.
The situation seems bleak to say the least, yet there are some positive developments that are worth mentioning. For instance, the Syrian government has licensed two Saudi-owned companies to invest in Syria’s phosphate, fertilizer, and cement sectors. It is a landmark example of Saudi investments since the 2011 conflict began. The decision is also a notable development given that, until now, Damascus has largely reserved the phosphate and fertilizer sectors to its traditional allies. As such, this can only mean an acceleration of warming of ties between Syria and the kingdom which can only have positive future implications. As things are gradually improving and despite the difficult situation, the Syrian government took the decision to increase public salaries by 100%. This was also done in response to reducing subsidies on oil derivatives. According to Syrian officials, the situation is improving gradually although it needs time for results to show up. After all, the war and the sanctions have made virtually impossible for the government to maneuver past challenges. Hopefully, the situation will stabilize even further and the ordinary people living in the country will witness what the government is promising.
Cyprus
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
-Confirmed cases: 660,854
-Deaths: 1,364
-As of 10 June 2023, a total of 1,858,908 vaccine doses have been administered
Former finance minister Harris Georgiades criticized the current administration and blamed it of being ‘irresponsible’. https://cyprus-mail.com/
During the month of August, upheaval struck Cyprus’s government as new reports have shown Cyprus’s GDP suffered a drop. Over the past year the Cypriot economy has been lauded for its innovation and ability to withstand the pressures caused by the international crises. As such, this came as a surprise for many as officials rushed to press conferences to respond to critics by opposition parties and figures. GDP dropped by 0.4% in the second quarter of 2023, compared with the previous quarter, prompting critics to fire accusations at the current ministers. According to them, the ramifications of the government’s actions have become evident and it has to take responsibility for its choices. Nevertheless, Cyprus’ Finance Ministry fended off accusations by reminding everyone involved that the economy is continuing its upward trend despite a slight bump in the economy. After all, Cyprus retains the second highest GDP growth rate in the Eurozone and has recorded a 2.1% in GDP when compared to last year’s results. According to the Finance Ministry, the slowdown in the growth rate of the economy was previously predicted and had started from the first quarter of 2022. After all, external factors such as the impact of continuous interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank, the inflation of consumer goods and the implementation of sanctions against Russian entities, have greatly impacted the economy. Therefore, slight divergences from the initial government plan are to be expected.
2- The Humanitarian Situation
Egypt
The European Union's Foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell has allocated €20 million to cash-strapped Egypt, aimed at helping Cairo cope with an influx of refugees fleeing the war in Sudan.[1]
Jordan
The UNHCR states that there are currently 656,762 registered refugees in Jordan up until the beginning of August.
The proportion of Syrian displaced people registered within the UNHCR for August, are distributed as follows:
-195,334 in Amman Governorate (29.7 %)
-169,043 in Mafraq Governorate (25.7%)
-128,467 in Irbid Governorate (19.6%)
-97,310 in Zarqa Governorate (14.8%)
-17,039 in Balqa Governorate (2.6%)
-13,027 in Madaba Governorate (2%)
-8,524 in Jarash Governorate (1.3%)
-8,312 in Karak Governorate (1.3%)
-8,194 in Maan Governorate (1.2%)
-5,794 in Ajlun Governorate (0.9%)
-3,781 in Aqaba Governorate (0.6%)
-1,428 in Tafilah Governorate (0.2%)
Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, at a meeting with the UNHC Filippo Grandi in Amman, said the international community must immediately facilitate the voluntary return of Syrian refugees to their homeland.[2]
Jordanian Interior Minister Mazin Al-Farrayeh told a visiting UN delegation led by High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi that his country is in urgent need of additional aid to bolster the humanitarian assistance it provides to refugees.[3]
Iraq
The UNHCR states that there are currently 292,580 registered Syrian refugees in Iraq.
The proportion of displaced Syrian people registered within the UNHCR up until the beginning of May, are distributed as follows:
-139,533 in Erbil (47.2%)
-74,022 in Dahuk (25.1%)
-38,716 in Sulaymaniyah (13.1%)
-18,244 in Ninewa (6.2%)
-15,150 in Baghdad (5.1%)
-2004 in Kirkuk (0.7%)
-1,557 in Anbar (0.5%)
-6222 in other areas (1.9%)[4]
The Iraqi Government and The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) joined forces to support buffalo breeders in the southern provinces of Iraq, and effectively address the critical challenges posed by climate change and water scarcity.[5]
The Iraqi Ministry of Migration and Displacement in a statement revealed the deadline for the return of internally displaced persons (IDPs) to their homes. The ministry set Sept.10 as the deadline. [6]
Lebanon
{The statistics sections was not updated for the month of August by UNHCR admin.}
Since the beginning of July, the number of registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon is 795,322.
Refugees in Lebanon are distributed as follows:
-305,921 in Bekaa (38.5%)
-222,788 in North Lebanon (28.0%)
-177,374 in Beirut (22.3%)
-89,239 in South Lebanon (11.2%)[7]
The Director of UNRWA Affairs in Lebanon, Dorothee Klaus, Chief Area Officer/Saida, Ibrahim ElKhatib and health staff of Ein El Hilweh camp, UNRWA opened today an emergency clinic in Al Sakhra School in Saida.[8]
Action For Humanity, one of the first UK charities to respond to the Beirut port explosion on August 4th 2020, have released a statement today declaring how the humanitarian situation in the country has been worse, since the tragic events 3 years ago.
Ein El Hilweh, the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon, is currently facing a dire situation as hundreds of families are displaced from their homes following clashes among armed groups in the camp. [9]
Syria
The SNHR condemned the Halting of UN Humanitarian Assistance Delivery via Bab al-Hawa border crossing for seven weeks to date, threatening tens of thousands of civilians’ lives.[10]
The worsening security, economic and humanitarian situation in Syria requires urgent concerted efforts from all parties to the conflict to resume a Syrian-led political process, the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for the country stressed.[11]
The SRTF announced the continuation of installation and connection works under its Electricity intervention, “Providing Solar Power and Clean Water to Health Centres in Ar-Raqqa and Deir-ez-Zor”.[12]
The SRTF announced the successful closure of its Agriculture project, “Agriculture Support to Farmers in Northern Aleppo” after delivering three tractors, 10 motorcycles, IT equipment, 250 MT of potato seeds, 3 MT of onion seeds, 2,000 MT of fertilisers, 800 litres of fungicides, 1,000 litres of insecticides, 800 litres of herbicides, 15,500 hessian sacks and 200,000 polypropylene sacks, to 8400 farmers. [13]
Under the slogan “Hope for Cure”, Qatar Red Crescent Society (QRCS) launched a fundraising campaign to ensure life-saving medical care for patients with cancer in northern Syria.[14]
Cyprus
Cyprus police arrested 21 people following violent clashes involving immigrants and residents from the village of Chlorakas, western Cyprus, which has a large population of asylum-seekers.[15]
The United Nations refugee agency claimed it was “extremely concerned” over the return of more than 100 Syrian nationals from Cyprus to Lebanon without being screened to determine whether they need legal protection and who may be deported back to their war-wracked homeland.[16]
[1] Euro News, 19/06/2023, https://www.euronews.com/2023/06/19/eu-allocates-20-million-to-help-egypt-manage-influx-of-refugees-fleeing-sudan
[2] The Media Line, August 23, 2023, https://themedialine.org/mideast-daily-news/jordan-calls-for-immediate-action-to-facilitate-syrian-refugees-return/
[3] Arab News, August 29, 2023, https://www.arabnews.com/node/2359696/middle-east
[4] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/5
[5] OCHA, August 20, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/iraqi-government-allocates-five-billion-iraqi-dinars-support-fao-and-moa-initiative-buffalo-producers-south-iraq-enar
[6] Kurdistan 24, August 12, 2023, https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/32250-Sept.-10-deadline-set-for-Iraqi-IDPs-to-return-home
[7] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/71
[8] OCHA, August 16, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/unrwa-opens-emergency-clinic-al-sakhra-school
[9] OCHA, August 1, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/crisis-ein-el-hilweh-urgent-humanitarian-response-needed
[10] OCHA, August 28, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/snhr-condemns-halting-un-humanitarian-assistance-delivery-bab-al-hawa-border-crossing-seven-weeks-date-threatening-tens-thousands-civilians-lives
[11] OCHA, August 24, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/worsening-conditions-syria-need-urgent-concerted-efforts-all-parties-resume-syrian-led-political-process-special-envoy-tells-security-council
[12] OCHA, August 17, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/electricity-intervention-progress-installation-and-connection-underway-health-facilities-across-northeast-syria-srtf-efforts
[13] OCHA, August 16, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/srtf-agriculture-project-successfully-concludes-its-activities-benefiting-over-8400-farmers-northern-aleppo
[14] OCHA, August 13, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/qrcs-launches-fundraising-campaign-cancer-patients-syria-enar
[15] TV World, 29.08.2023, https://tvpworld.com/72332523/tensions-spiking-in-cyprus-citizens-fed-up-with-irregular-migration
[16] AP News, August 11, 2023, https://apnews.com/article/cyprus-lebanon-migrants-pushbacks-returns-syria-unhcr-5c6b122acdc17de6e1cc6838b41b69b4