Occupation and Fragmentation
Middle East Socioeconomic Overview
Report: December 2023
Palestinians in Gaza move from place to place, only to discover nowhere is safe | AP News
Table of Acronyms
2. Introduction
With the end of the fragile ceasefire in Gaza, began a new round of violence. As such, the news of the murder of hundreds of civilians who are not part of the fight, returned to be the talking point of every major media outlet operating in the region. Moreover, the ‘emergency’ transfer of deadly munitions to the occupier although it has no shortage of deadly weaponry its arsenal; illegal phosphorous rounds are also being used with impunity and without remorse. The sad fact of the matter is that some Western nations who have been championing human rights over a sizable period of time, are either refraining to offer explanations to the inhumane actions or timidly calling-out the Occupier’s aggressive actions in Gaza. Hopefully, the leaders of the Western world will muster the courage to speak up for what is right and begin denying the Oppressor the resources it uses to wage war.
3. The Socio-Economic Situation
Egypt
A view of Cairo. Photo credit: https://www.egypttoday.com/
According to Bloomberg magazine, investors expect that Egypt will be forced to make a “painful” devaluation of the pound, after the end of the current presidential elections. Such a statement was released during a time that President Sisi is being critized by the country’s partners because of the military’s expanded involvement in the economy. To add pressure on the Egyptian political system, the Director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, also claimed that Egypt would continue to lose its precious reserves unless it devalued its currency again. However, seeing that the region is passing through a turbulent phase with regards to the economic difficulties because of the war in Gaza, she hinted towards a possible increase in the loan program for Egypt. Afterall, Egypt is Palestine’s neighbour and will be directly impacted if the situation deteriorates even further. This is why some economists speculate that at the end of the day the IMF will be forced to support Egypt despite its criticisms of how things are being done. The same economists speculate that the Gulf Cooperation Council, the EU, and the United States will be forced to aid Egypt regardless of what are the results of the presidential elections. Nevertheless, according to Bloomberg, every granting entity will ask as a prerequisite for obtaining more financing is the easing of controls imposed on the foreign exchange market, if not a complete liberalization of the Egyptian pound. In response to such a claim the Chairman of the Planning and Budget Committee of the House of Representatives, Fakhri Al-Fiqi, the exchange rate of the pound will not be liberalized soon, describing the current economic conditions as “unfavorable” and rushing to make this decision threatens national security. As such, for the time being, it is unclear how both sides will tackle such an issue. What is certain however, is that the war in Gaza will definetly have a major influence on the decision making.
On the plus side, Egypt will have much to bulk up its economy as the country is set to receive $21.5 billion from foreign investments. These investments will be distributed as follows: Indian investments amounting to $13 billion, Turkey $3 billion, Belgium $3 billion, and China $2.5 billion. Additionaly, Qatar has declared intentions to invest an unknown sum of money, seeing that Egypt is participating in the Free Trade Agreement and COMESA. At the micro- economic level, Egypt is also receiving assistance to bolster its SME sector. This is why the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is considering providing two loans totaling $35 million to the Egypt-based Arab Investment Bank (aiBank), to bolster aiBank's efforts in supporting households and micro, small, and SME’s that operate across the residential, agribusiness, industrial, commercial, and service sectors. Also an important development is the decleration of Food Trip Egypt, a company specialized in agricultural produce, to invest 150 Million EGP to enhance its exportsto nearly 20 countries, including Palestine, Libya, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the UK, Canada, and others across the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.
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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 516,023
Deaths: 24,830
As of 20 May 2023, a total of 112,673,535 vaccine doses have been administered.
Jordan
Amman, Jordan. Photo Credit: Shutter Stock.
During a meeting at the Zarqa Chamber of Industry, the Minister of Industry and Supply, Youssef Al-Shamali, stated that the government has taken practical steps to support the industrial sector with the aim of enhancing its competitiveness and helping it address various challenges. Also, Al-Shamali announced the results of the evaluation of industrial companies selected to benefit from the incentive program, which provides non-refundable financial support for the development of industrial facilities. He added that the total value of the agreements signed in the first round of the Fund's programs amounted to about 45.2 million dinars, for the benefit of 395 industrial facilities, which constitutes a large percentage of the total allocations for the Fund's programs. Also he stressed that economic modernization is considered one of the government's executive priorities, with a focus on strengthening the capabilities of the national industry and increasing its competitiveness at the local and international levels. After all, Jordan must attempt to strenghten its industry to become more self sufficient judging the turbulent events surrounding it. As such, it must diversify its economy to become less dependent on sectors such as tourism. During the meeting, industrial companies in Zarqa presented several demands related to the industrial sector, and the Minister pledged to follow them up in cooperation with the chamber and the concerned authorities. This represents a closer approachment between the private and public sectors which will prove to be benefitial for the future of the economy. On another positive note, the Jordanian government and the United States Agency for International Development signed an annual American grant agreement to support the budget worth $845 million. This cash grant comes as part of the annual American economic aid program to the Jordanian government within the strategic memorandum of understanding with the American side signed in September last year, which covers a period of seven years (2023-2029).
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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 1,746,997
Deaths: 14,122
As of 20 August 2022, a total of 10,057,975 vaccine doses have been administered.
Iraq
A picture of the Iraqi capital, Baghdad. Photo credit: Shutterstock.
In its attempt to decrease its dependency on the US dollar, Iraq agreed with the UAE to trade using the UAE dirham. According to the Iraqi News Agency, the two countries also agreed to launch financial transfer operations between the two countries, provided that the first phase of this agreement includes five Iraqi banks. According to the agency, the Central Bank of Iraq revealed the launch of transfer operations in the UAE dirham, indicating that this will enable Iraqi banks to establish relationships with reputable international banks. Of course, such a move falls in line with Iraq’s previouis decleration of its intent to join BRICS. In additon to its new policy towards the use of currency, the Iraqi government was also able to make signficant progress in combating corruption. This was noted by an EU representative, during his meeting with the head of the Federal Commission of Integrity (COI), Haider Hanoun. He commended the Iraqi government’s approach to combating corruption, indicating that European companies have been advised to operate in Iraq as regulations are encouraging, security is improving, and the judiciary is professional. Such a decleration is very crucial, especially when the government is trying to improve the reputation of the cpuntry as it is targeting investments of nearly $70 billion by the private sector within the next five years mainly in five new residential cities planned in various parts of the Arab country. As such, Iraq can look forward to a future in which its like can finally change. Now, it is less influenced by external pressures that had hindered any progress.
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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 2,465,545
Deaths: 25,375
As of 1 January 2023, a total of 19,557,364 vaccine doses have been administered.
Lebanon
Christmas decorations in one of Lebanon’s areas. Photo credit: batlounis Lebanon.
For the time being, the friction at the Southern Lebanese borders remain, more or less, at bay. With constant threats coming from the Occupiers side, people in Lebanon remain alert for any escalation that may affect livelihood. Afterall, the Occupiers have repeatedly threatened turning Lebanon into another Gaza and the Lebanese are very well aware of the grave human rights violtions the usurping entity has done throughout the ages. On the bright side however, many people returned to the country for the holiday season as some businesses are being revived and shops in the country’s city center have reopened to accommodate expats’ shopping spree. In this way, people will be encouraged to buy locally products which hold the label “Made in Lebanon” and will therefore be directly supporting local factories and families. Spas, Lebanese hotels, restaurants, and even gyms benefitted during the season thus bringing hope to people that things just might finally turn around. Although the economy has recorded some advances in commercial activity, the country’s South, which has been long forsaken by the government, is continuing to lose private property, infrastructure, and agricultural lands due to the phosphorus rounds being used. Moreover, productivity and commercial activity has significanty slowed as inhabitants have displaced to shelters, after closing their businesses and sources of livelihood. Moreover, schools and medical centers remain closed, thus depriving citizens of much needed services and therefore, reason to stay in the South. Hopefully, the rush of the holiday season in other parts of the country can have an added value to bearing the economic reprecussions of the escalations in the South.
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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 1,239,904
Deaths: 10,947
As of 21 December 2022, a total of 5,814,699 vaccine doses have been administered.
Palestine
A Health worker overcome with exhaustion due to mounting difficulties. Photo credit: Aljazeera.com
The end of the ceasefire meant the resumption of hostilities between the two sides. This time however, the death toll increased not only in Gaza but also in the West Bank where a series of unlawful arrests are being carried out. What is happening in the West Bank, however, is nowhere near what is happening in Gaza. According to Gaza’s health ministry, at least 21, 700 has been killed by the Occupiers military campaign, mostly women and children. The UN states that more than 85 percent of Gaza’s 2.4 million people have fled their homes and are fragmented throughout the war torn city. As for the World Health Organization (WHO), it has warned of the growing threat of infectious diseases as the UN says Gaza is “just weeks away” from famine. To make matters worse, the Occupiers are insisting that the war will take additional months with nonstop fighting although several hostages are still being withheld. International mediators -- who last month brokered a one-week truce that saw more than 100 hostages released and some aid enter Gaza -- continue in their efforts to secure a new pause in fighting. Nevertheless, the occupiers are still hell-bent on destroying Gaza even if many hostages are killed in the process. As the number of injured individuals grow, hospitals are unable to comprehend the immense humanitarian needs. Not only medical institutions are suffering from fuel and medicine shortages but staff as well; Palestinian medics have been converted into military targets as they attempt to carry out their duties. According to one medic who survived an assault, watching family members and colleagues die has effectively become part of the job, and the Occupying army has additionally busied itself abducting and torturing Palestinian healthcare workers. News of such events wouldn’t have been possible without the heroic actions of brave journalists in the city. Nevertheless, they too were not exempt from the Occupier’s unrestrained actions. According to The New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), this war has constituted the “deadliest period for journalists since CPJ began gathering data in 1992”; between October 7 and December 23, sixty-nine journalists and media workers had been confirmed dead. Hopefully, the Occupier’s actions will continue to be monitored as it tries to diminish free speech.
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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 703,228
Deaths: 5,708
As of 17 October 2022, a total of 3,748,571 vaccine doses have been administered
Syria
Food prices in Syria are witnessing significant increases. Photo credit: Al Jazeera
Merchants in areas controlled by the Syrian government have been suffering from great challenges and difficulties to maintain their businesses and trade under the weight of economic and legal pressures for years, which has forced some of them to abandon their trade and withdraw from the market to preserve capital. Syrian markets are witnessing the worst decline of commercial activity since the beginning of the economic crisis in the country about 12 years ago, due to the decline in the purchasing power of Syrians, and the restrictions imposed by economic laws on merchants. According to Yasser Akreem, a member of the Board of Directors of the Damascus Chamber of Commerce, more than 100,000 merchants have left business in Syria, considering this a major loss to the Syrian economy. Akreem spoke about the absence of government support for the commercial sector, and how negligible it is when compared to the support provided to the industrial sector. According to Akreem, the negative repercussions of this situation are clearly noticeable on the economy. He added that out of 110,000 commercial records registered with the Ministry of Internal Trade and Consumer Protection in the regime’s government, there are only 7,000 active records in the Damascus Chamber of Commerce, attributing this commercial contraction to “a lack of clarity in commercial laws.” Akreem added that the merchant in Syria is today in his worst condition as a result of the government’s failure to support him. Akreem’s comments come as assurance to what member of the management of the Damascus Chamber of Commerce, Muhammad Hallak, indicated back in September, that that there is no government mechanism to reduce or stabilize prices, indicating that the price regulations issued by the government do not match reality.
As a result of the decline of commercial activity and the consequent decrease in supply, prices are continuously increasing. It is specially case when it comes to the rising food prices in Syria after they have increased overall by more than 300%, according to economist Ali Al-Shami. Moreover, Syrian economist Muhammad Haj Bakri claims the year 2023 is the worst year for Syrians to live in, especially in government-controlled areas, as the cost of living exceeds 5 million liras while income does not exceed 200,000. It is expected that more prices will rise and the state will abandon and withdraw support for the rest of the goods next year. The United Nations World Food Program, which serves 3.2 million people, has previously warned that hunger rates in Syria have reached record levels, in a country ravaged by a bloody conflict, accompanied by a chronic economic and financial collapse, and to make matters worse, it has announced that it will end its general food assistance program in Syria in January due to a shortfall in funding. In other words, 2024 will be starting with quite a few challenges.
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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 57,423
Deaths: 3,163
As of 15 January 2023, a total of 5,090,630 vaccine doses have been administered
Cyprus
Cyprus’s economy is set to grow by 2.4%. photo credit: https://in-cyprus.philenews.com/.
Despite the situation in Gaza, tourist arrivals reached 159,605 in November, up 6.5% from the same month last year, helping to boost total arrivals for the year to 3,722,022, a massive 20.4% increase from the 3,091,039 in the same period last year. This had a positive impact on the economy as the country’s final estimation of the GDP which is 2.4% thus displaying resilience to the event surrounding the island. The Central Bank of Cyprus however highlighted the fact that the obsucrity surrounding where the Gaza war is heading, hiking interests and the prevelance of several Non-performing loans, might impede progress. Neverthless, the government’s continious attempts to improve the economy, are keeping anxieties at bay and allowing the country to better buffer itself from any fallout. For instance, President of the Republic, Nikos Christodoulides, declared that the country will be moving forward in strenghtening its support to its shipping sector. He did not mention the steps the country will do so, yet the current government’s track record in implementing programs has been noteworthy throughout the year. Another instance, is the decrease in the level of unemployment to the point that hotel, food service, and retail sectors are in need of 12,000 employees to fill their vacancies. These sectors have improved to the point that they are not able to find domestic workers and therefore will have to rely on foreign workers to fill the gap. This alone hints at Cyprus’s flourishing economy.
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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 660,854
Deaths: 1,364
As of 10 June 2023, a total of 1,858,908 vaccine doses have been administered
4. The Humanitarian Situation
Egypt
According to the European Council of Foreign Relations, the expanding ground-offensive threatens to push Palestinians out of Gaza and into neighboring Egypt. This would worsen an already dire humanitarian situation and risks destabilizing Egypt, an important European partner. [1]
Up to this point in time, 400 Palestinian refugees have been allowed from Gaza to cross into the country for medical treatment.[2]
Jordan
The UNHCR states that there are currently 651,329 registered refugees in Jordan up until the beginning of December.
The proportion of Syrian displaced people registered within the UNHCR for December, are distributed as follows:
-193,075 in Amman Governorate (29.6 %)
-169,089 in Mafraq Governorate (26.0%)
-126,905 in Irbid Governorate (19.5%)
-96,793 in Zarqa Governorate (14.9%)
-16,644 in Balqa Governorate (2.6%)
-12,710 in Madaba Governorate (2%)
-8,417 in Jarash Governorate (1.3%)
-8,172 in Karak Governorate (1.3%)
-8,166 in Maan Governorate (1.3%)
-5,671 in Ajlun Governorate (0.9%)
-3,759 in Aqaba Governorate (0.6%)
-1,413 in Tafilah Governorate (0.2%)
-515 in other (0.1%)
According to the UNHCR, some 760,000 people are registered with the UN’s refugee agency. Sixty percent of those live below the poverty line, and recent cuts to cash assistance programmes have forced them to tighten their belts even further.[3]
According to The International Water Management Institute (IWMI), water and climate stress are threatening Jordanian refugee hosting communities.[4]
Iraq
The UNHCR states that there are currently 299,877 registered Syrian refugees in Iraq.
The proportion of displaced Syrian people registered within the UNHCR up until the beginning of December, are distributed as follows:
-109,809 in Erbil (52.7%)
-35,790 in Dahuk (17.2%)
-29,208 in Sulaymaniyah (14.0%)
-4,913 in Ninewa (2.4%)
-16,123 in Baghdad (7.7%)
-2,232 in Kirkuk (1.1%)
-1,692 in Anbar (0.8%)
-12,295 in other areas (4.1%)[5]
The United Nations Mine Action Service (UNMAS) in Iraq welcomed an additional contribution of DKK 22,000,000 (approximately USD 3,168,659) from the Government of Denmark, which will contribute to support the Government of Iraq (GoI) to protect civilians from the threat of explosive ordnance (EO) and will enable humanitarian, socioeconomic, and reconstruction efforts.[6]
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has provided financing to 2,424 small and medium enterprises (SMEs) across Iraq through its Enterprise Development Fund (EDF) since its initial launch in 2018, helping to create 11,217 new jobs and improve 12,980 already existing jobs for host, returnee and internally displaced communities alike.[7]
Lebanon
[The below section regarding the statistics has not been updated by UNHCR Iraq for the Month of November.]
Since the beginning of October, the number of registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon is 789,842.
Refugees in Lebanon are distributed as follows:
-302,253 in Bekaa (38.3%)
-222,239 in North Lebanon (28.1%)
-176,182 in Beirut (22.3%)
-89,168 in South Lebanon (11.3%)[8]
As of 27 December, the number of displaced amounted to 74, 471 and number of killed increased to 118. Also, 6 medical facilities remain closed as well as 50 public schools. Moreover, 462 hectars of agricultural land have been damaged in addition 300k livestock animals. [9]
According to the World Food Program (WFP), the cost of the full Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB) increased by 7 percent between September and October 2023, reaching LBP 34 million (US$ 379) for a family of five. The cost of the food basket alone also increased by 6 percent for the same period and reached LBP 3.1 million (US$35) per person per month.[10]
Syria
Since hostilities escalated on 5 October, at least 99 civilians have been killed and over 400 others injured, according to local health authorities as of 18 December.
The UN completed more than 300 missions to north-west Syria, reaching 34 out of 45 sub-districts, including all sub-districts in northern Aleppo, and new frontline areas.
The winter response is ongoing with the provision of stoves, winter kits, cash among other support. 30 per cent of SCHF’s Standard Allocation ($31 million) is for winterization.
Over 28,500 families have been moved out of tents into dignified shelters as of mid-December. At this rate, it will take five years to reach target unless funding increases.
Funding for WFP and partners dropped by over 50 per cent this year. Since July, the number of people reached with food assistance per month has halved in north-west Syria.[11]
Cyprus
As record numbers of Syrian refugees reach the shores of Cyprus, the Nicosia government wants the European Union to consider declaring parts of their war-torn homeland safe to repatriate them to.[12]
Cypriot authorities registered 252 migrants arriving in three different boats off the coast of Cyprus. The boats are thought to have set off from Libya, Syria and Lebanon.[13]
[1]ECFR, December 14, 2023, https://ecfr.eu/article/tipping-point-the-risks-of-palestinian-displacement-for-egypt/
[2] Mission News, December 28, 2023, https://www.mnnonline.org/news/egyptian-christians-representing-jesus-to-refugees-from-gaza/
[3]Open democracy, December 11, 2023. https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/beyond-trafficking-and-slavery/we-only-ate-rice-for-a-week-yemeni-sudanese-refugees-struggle-to-survive-in-jordan/
[4] OCHA, Dec. 14, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/jordan/water-and-climate-stress-are-threatening-jordanian-refugee-hosting-communities-what-are-we-doing-about-it
[5] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/5
[6] OCHA, Dec. 29,2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/government-denmark-provides-additional-contribution-unmas-support-mine-action-sector-iraq-enar
[7] OCHA, Dec 19, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/over-11k-new-jobs-created-iraq-iom-support-enarku
[8] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/71
[9]OCHA, Dec 30, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/lebanon-glance-escalation-hostilities-south-lebanon-27-december-2023
[10] OCHA, Dec 27, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/wfp-lebanon-situation-report-november-2023
[11] https://reliefweb.int/country/syr
[12] Reuters, Dec 14, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/cyprus-calls-eu-rethink-syria-migration-refugee-numbers-rise-2023-12-14/
[13] Info Migrants, December 5, 2023, https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/53666/hundreds-of-migrants-arrive-off-the-coast-of-cyprus