Is Lebanon Next?
Middle East Socioeconomic Overview
Report: June 2024
As the war winds down in Gaza, the Lebanese border with Palestine heats up. Will things go out of control? Photo credit: France 24.
As the operation in Rafah and Gaza winds down, the leadership of the occupying entity turns its attention to the unfolding situation at the Northern borders of Occupied Palestine. Since the events of October, the North has been witnessing military escalation forcing the displacement of thousands of people from both side. While the occupier has been retaliating to the attacks, it has not yet initiated a full operation over Lebanon. However, that may soon change as the occupant’s leaderships is determined on war for political reasons.
THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SITUATION
Egypt
Egypt intends to reduce tax burdens on low- and middle-income people. Photo credit: www.alarabiya.net
The Egyptian Minister of Finance, Dr. Mohamed Maait, revealed in an interview that in implementation of the presidential directives to take all measures and measures to support low- and middle-income people, in a manner that would contribute to reducing the inflationary effects associated with external and internal economic challenges. As such a draft income tax law was made aiming to reduce the tax burdens on low and middle-income people working in the public and private sector. This will be done by working to re-engineer the tax brackets for salaries, in order to achieve social justice, taking into account a periodic review according to inflation levels and rates. He pointed out that the new draft law does not include any increase in income tax rates, including the upper bracket, which will remain constant, and aims to determine taxable incomes to be clearer, simplify, and deepen tax certainty.
He also claimed that the Egyptian government is committed to dialogue and societal consensus on the draft law or any tax amendments before referring them to the Council of Ministers and the House of Representatives. He explained that there had previously been agreement with representatives of the business community on the necessity of drafting a new income tax law, in light of international best practices, to keep pace with international changes, and to contribute to avoiding the challenges of the practical application of the provisions of the current law, which has undergone many amendments over the course of 20 years. Of course, this is done in a manner consistent with maximizing digital transformation efforts for tax systems aimed at achieving justice.
Because of Egypt’s drive to implement further reforms, organizations, economic commentators, and media outlets are lauding these moves. Many have stated the Egyptian economy has improved significantly because the state adopting flexible and balanced policies to enhance general financial solidity and achieve financial discipline. As a result, the Egyptian economy returned to a more stable path in the face of global fluctuations and more private investment flows started to take place. The enlargement of the private sectors paved the way for sustainable economic growth and more job opportunities, while indirectly improving the standard of living of citizens. This should go hand in hand with Egypt’s strive to improve employee conditions and therefore increase the country’s labor force. For this reason, the World Bank also expects growth rates to reach 4.2% in the next fiscal year.
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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 516,023
Deaths: 24,613
Recovered: 442,182[SG1]
Jordan
People sit by the water at dusk in the southern Jordanian city of Aqaba. Getty Images.
As Jordan’s Tourism sector is yet to recover, Jordan unveiled a new plan for the development its economy on its 27km Red Sea coast. In this way, Jordan could deal with regional competition as Saudi Arabia develops its Neom mega project, 200km south of Aqaba, and Egypt expands its own Red Sea plans. Nayef Al Fayez, head of the Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority, indicated that Jordan has a competitive advantage since it has a young and skilled workforce that can easily increase demand on Jordan’s services and therefore create job opputunities. Although Mr Fayez dismissed the idea that the war in Gaza will have long-lasting on Jordan’s economy, he emphasized that it is in Jordan’s interest to develop such projects so that to decrease reliance on a volatile tourism sector. According to data published by the government, the war in Gaza saw many flight routes to the kingdom cut, with visitor numbers declining by 10 per cent to 1.3 million in the first quarter of this year. This year's decline in visitors was due to the decrease in western tourists after Ryanair and other low-cost airlines stopped most of their flights from Europe to Amman this year. The cancellations were due to plane shortages and higher flight costs with routes having to avoid Gaza air space. The Jordanian government had also declined to raise a $40 per passenger subsidy it was giving airlines as an incentive to fly to the kingdom. Despite such challenges the Jordanian government, is continuing its drive to bring in visitors and foreign investment, particularly to Aqaba on the Red Sea.
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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 1,746,997
Deaths: 14,122
Recovered: 1,731,007
Iraq
The new Crude Processing Facility 3 oil station in the Halfaya oilfield in southern of Maysan province, Halfaya. Reuters
The country opened a new Gas Processing Project at an oilfield in Halfaya. Considered as a major achievement in the country’s efforts to stop flaring natural gas and reach energy self-sufficiency, the site will process 300 million standard cubic feet per day of natural gas. In this way, Iraq can now use more advanced ways of extracting natural gas instead of relying on poor and inefficient infrastructure. The project also is a symbol of growing ties which China whose PetroChina is the main investor. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani, who was present at the event to inaugurate the project, considered it a signigicant step on the path of our economic reform and optimal investment strategies to stop gas flaring and its impact in the environment and health. Thus by producing 20,000 barrels a day of gas condensates, a low-density mixture of hydrocarbon liquids that Iraq blends with crude oil to improve its quality, Iraq aims to upgrade production capacity and provide a better fix for the environment. Moreover, it will allow the country to reach a greater level of sufficiency, especially when it relies on neighboring Iran which provides Iraq with one third of its energy needs. As such, the move will benefit Iraq politically as well since Baghdad has been under pressure from the US to wean itself off Iranian energy imports, which have been subject to US sanctions since 2018. So far, Iraq has curbed the sanctions by requesting temporary extended waivers to Baghdad for periods of 45 to 120 days to be able to import Iranian electricity and gas. In additon to the preceding benefits the project will bring, it will allow the building a seawater treatment plant for providing water injection for pressure maintenance, as an alternative to the use of fresh water from rivers and aquifers.
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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 2,465,545
Deaths: 25,375
Recovered: 2,439,497
Lebanon
The South continues to take hits with a larger risk of spiraling out of control. Photo credit: lorientlejour.com
In June, tensions between Lebanon and Palestine’s Occupiers reached an all-new level as the region is at a brink of a wider conflict. During the month, both sides significantly upped the rhetoric signaling to each other and the international community, that they are ready for war. As a result, some flights to Beirut were cancelled and foreigners who wanted to visit the country cancelled their trips. Even Lebanese with dual nationalities hurried up to pack their bags and leave the country, fearing that they will get stuck in Lebanon. Also, several embassies in the country are advising their citizens to leave the country or not to travel to it. In other words, the conflict which is gaining intensity is now leaving a larger mark on Lebanon. To make matters worse, Western media and press are warning of the collapse of the Lebanese economy and of the great risks facing the lira in the event of further delay in forming the government. For instance, The British magazine The Economist warned, in a report, that the monetary policies followed in Lebanon are “unsustainable, and that any collapse in the value of the lira’s exchange rate will be painful, and there will be nothing left to allocate.” Despite all this, Lebanese representatives and experts have mitigated such claims regarding the status of the economy, labeling them as “over dramatization”. The head of the Finance and Budget Committee in the Lebanese Parliament, Representative Ibrahim Kanaan, reassured that there is no danger to the financial situation and considered that it is all political pressure. While there might be no collapse even if a war breaks out and a Presidential vacuum remains, there is no doubt that these two factors will affect the economy’s ability to grow.
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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 1,243,838
Deaths: 10,952
Recovered: 1,087,587
Palestine
Behind the scenes, international players are mustering their economic and diplomatic resources to support the Palestinian Authority. Photo credit: https://elaph.com/
During June, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia declared its support for the economic reform plans led by the Palestinian government headed by the new Palestinian Prime Minister, Muhammad Mustafa, and under the guidance of President Mahmoud Abbas. Such a declaration came in light of the stifling financial crisis that the Palestinian economy is experiencing as a result of the war in Gaza. As such, Saudi Arabia called upon removing all obstacles to do so including what the occupier is doing in the West Bank. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan stressed on the necessity of lifting the seizure of Palestinian funds and not taking any other measures that hinder the work of the Palestinian government. Moreover, Bloomberg magazine has indicated that there are intentions for among various international players to hold discussions with the Palestinian Authority on how the international community can best support the government’s reform plan, in addition to supporting the strengthening of Palestinian institutions and capabilities. Also, Turkey, which has halted all trade with the Occupying entity until a ceasefire is enacted and unlimited humanitarian aid is allowed into the Gaza Strip, has deepened economic ties with Palestine. It has established new cooperation protocol which witnessed the adding a list of Palestinian agricultural products exempted from customs to the pre-existing Turkey-Palestine Free Trade Agreement. In short, there are international communications and movements behind the scenes to support Palestine which has been devastated by the war. Perhaps these steps will be a lifeline for the people who have lived through woes since last October.
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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 621,008
Deaths: 5,404
Recovered: 615,445
Syria
The Syrian has yet to show serious signs of improvement. Photo credit: imlebanon.org
Throughout areas controlled by the government, the private sector resorted to reducing its employment amid the worsening severe economic crisis and a decline in the profitability of all business sectors in the country, which exacerbates the already high unemployment rates, threatening thousands of additional families to descend into the quagmire of poverty and destitution. According to Damascus Chamber of Commerce member Imad al-Qabbani, the private sector has recently resorted to reducing the number of employees due to the recession in the markets, the inability to sell products, and weak purchasing power. He also added that he added that the Syrian employee is the biggest loser from the repercussions of this reduction in the number of workers. For his part, Majdi Al-Jamous, a professor at the Faculty of Economics at Damascus University, confirmed that the unemployment rate in Syria exceeds 37%, while the disguised unemployment rate has exceeded 85%. Similarly, Shafiq Arabsh, a professor at the Faculty of Economics at the University of Damascus, indicated that the economy is in a state close to “complete paralysis,” stressing that the labor market in Syria suffers from a major structural defect due to the migration of Syrian workers, and that all productive sectors in Syria produce at a minimum level. He also added that the government’s continued adoption of these policies will ultimately lead to a sharp contraction in the size of the private sector, and to the inability of the public sector to provide services.
Despite the gloominess of the picture a few positive developments were reported. From one end, the Syrian government has granted a license to an Iranian company and two Iranian businessmen to establish an Islamic bank called Al-Madina Islamic Bank. The Central Bank of Syria said that Iran holds a 60 percent stake in the bank, reflecting Tehran's "confidence in Syria's economic recovery and development.” Moreover, The Syrian government has inaugurated this month several projects - from a five-star hotel to a water pumping station - in the Deir-ez-Zor governorate, worth approximately SYP 60 billion in total (around USD 4.04 million at the current black-market rate). This is the second time within a year that a high level ministerial delegation visits the governorate. However, what is really worth mentioning is the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs’ collaboration with the United Nations Development Program to launch Syria's first state-run employment platform offering job-matching services, training opportunities, and data about the labor market.
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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 57,743
Deaths: 3,165
Recovered: 54,578
Cyprus
President Nikos Christodoulides
Speaking at the 63rd annual general assembly of the Institute of Certified Public Accountants of Cyprus, President Nikos Christodoulides reiterated the nation’s drive to ensure macroeconomic stability and the rational management of resources and public financial obligations. These measure ought to enhance the competitiveness of businesses and improve the living standards of citizens. He reflected on the economic indicators which have demonstrated that the economy is on the right track. This is quite evident when it comes to the continuous evaluations of several research institutes which have all confirmed the president’s remarks. For instance, Focus Economics magazine, confirmed that the annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.5% in the first quarter, from 2.1% in the fourth quarter of last year. Moreover, household spending growth accelerated to 3.9% year on year in Q1 compared to a 3.0% expansion in Q4, driven by lower inflation. This means that consumption is improving despite the economic difficulties which have resulted from regional turbulences which have increased inflation in other countries. Also public spending has increased by 4%. In terms of unemployment, he noted that it is showing noticeable deceleration, adding that “the positive course of the economy is also evident from the improvement in the fiscal situation, with the appearance of a significant fiscal surplus and the reduction of public debt”. Nevertheless, anxieties remain the same on the island regarding the escalating situation in the region. So far the country has survived the Russian-Ukrainian war, but If things spiral out of control in Occupied Palestine and Lebanon, all previous assessments will have to be remade.
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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 681,110
Deaths: 1,365
Recovered: 546,203
2. THE HUMANITARIAN SITUATION
Egypt
· Amnesty International released a statement urging The Egyptian authorities to stop the mass arbitrary arrests and unlawful deportations of Sudanese refugees who had crossed the border into Egypt seeking refuge from the conflict in Sudan. [1]
Jordan
The UNHCR states that there are currently 631,656 registered refugees in Jordan up until the beginning of June.
The proportion of Syrian displaced people registered within the UNHCR for the beginning of June, are distributed as follows:
188,735 in Amman Governorate (29.9 %)
161,689 in Mafraq Governorate (25.6%)
124,325 in Irbid Governorate (19.7%)
92,490 in Zarqa Governorate (14.6%)
16,261 in Balqa Governorate (2.6%)
12,557 in Madaba Governorate (2%)
8,178 in Jarash Governorate (1.3%)
8,072 in Karak Governorate (1.3%)
8,242 in Maan Governorate (1.3%)
5,491 in Ajlun Governorate (0.9%)
3,837in Aqaba Governorate (0.6%)
1,383 in Tafilah Governorate (0.2%)
448 in other (0.1%)
· The Qatar Fund for Development (QFFD) and the International Rescue Committee (IRC) have launched a project to provide primary health care services to over 23,000 Syrian refugees in the Zaatari refugee camp. [2]
· Starting in July 2024, WFP will suspend its monthly food assistance for 100,000 refugees living in communities. Limited funding is forcing WFP to stretch available resources prioritizing the most vulnerable families.[3]
Iraq
The UNHCR states that there are currently 307,251 registered Syrian refugees in Iraq.
The proportion of displaced Syrian people registered within the UNHCR up until the beginning of June, are distributed as follows:
116,406 in Erbil (51.9%)
39,431 in Dahuk (17.6%)
31,623 in Sulaymaniyah (14.1%)
2,239 in Ninewa (1%)
13,114 in Baghdad (4.6%)
2,749 in Kerbala (1.2%)
2,339 in Najaf (1%)
2,704 in Kirkuk (1.2%)
1,687 in Anbar (0.8%)
20, 822 in other areas (6.6%)[4]
· In the face of ongoing attacks on Rafah and on UNRWA, Iraq has pledged US$25 million to support Palestinian refugees through the agency.
· The Ministry of Migration and Displacement - MMD announced the opening of a special office for Palestinian refugee affairs in Baghdad.[5]
Lebanon
Since the beginning of April, the number of registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon is 779,645.
Refugees in Lebanon are distributed as follows:
295,392 in Bekaa (37.9%)
220,434 in North Lebanon (28.3%)
176,611 in Beirut (22.7%)
87,208 in South Lebanon (11.2%)[6]
· The Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) in partnership with UNICEF, the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the LEGO Foundation, launched the ‘Heal through Play’ project to provide the most vulnerable children with safe spaces and tools for children to play, learn, express themselves, and return to a sense of normalcy.[7]
· UN-Habitat and the Embassy of Japan in Lebanon complete a multi-sectoral project providing urban solutions to urgent needs in Abou Samra, Tripoli. [8]
· 95,228 individuals (50% females) have been displaced from south Lebanon due to the ongoing hostilities as of 11 June. Human Rights Watch (HRW) reported that the occupier’s widespread use of white phosphorus in south Lebanon is putting civilians at grave risk and contributing to civilian displacement.[9]
Syria
· On the International Day of Innocent Children Victims of Aggression: 30,228 Children Have Been Documented Killed in Syria Since March 2011, including 199 Who Died Due to Torture, While at least 5,263 Children are Still Under Arrest and/or Forcibly Disappeared. [10]
· The European Union has made a significant financial contribution to UNRWA’s emergency cash assistance program for Palestine Refugees in Syria to aid 93,856 Palestine Refugees who are facing hardship and displacement in the country.[11]
· The Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR) released a report regarding the violations, which caused the displacement of millions of Syrians from their country in the first place, are still taking place across Syria. Indeed, the report stresses, even more Syrians than previously are now seeking asylum abroad. As a result of these violations that threaten fundamental human rights and human dignity, and to which there is no apparent prospect of any end in the foreseeable future or of the perpetrators being held to account, hundreds more Syrians are now trying to sell their properties and flee their homeland.[12]
Cyprus
· According to various civil society organizations, violence against asylum seekers is on the rise amid widespread indifference. [13]
[1] Amnesty, June 19, 2024, https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/06/egypt-authorities-must-end-campaign-of-mass-arrests-and-forced-returns-of-sudanese-refugees/
[2] Jordan Times, June 25, 2024,https://jordantimes.com/news/local/qffd-irc-launch-healthcare-services-project-syrian-refugees
[3] OCHA, https://reliefweb.int/report/jordan/wfp-jordan-country-brief-may-2024
[4] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/5
[5] https://ina.iq/eng/33340-mmd-opens-a-special-office-for-palestinian-refugee-affairs-in-baghdad.html
[6] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/71
[7] OCHA, June 7, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/ministry-public-health-launch-unicef-danish-government-and-lego-foundation-heal-through-play-project-improve-mental-health-and-psychosocial-wellbeing-children-lebanon-enar
[8] OCHA, June 4, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/un-habitat-and-embassy-japan-lebanon-complete-multi-sectoral-project-providing-urban-solutions-urgent-needs-abou-samra-tripoli-enar
[9] OCHA, Jun 18, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/lebanon-flash-update-20-escalation-hostilities-south-lebanon-13-june-2024
[10]OCHA, June 4, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/30228-children-have-been-documented-killed-syria-march-2011-including-199-who-died-due-torture-while-least-5263-children-are-still-under-arrest-andor-forcibly-disappeared-enar
[11] OCHA, June 5, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/european-union-provides-new-funding-unrwa-support-cash-assistance-palestine-refugees-syria
[12] OCHA, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/world-refugee-day-least-4714-returning-refugees-idps-have-been-arbitrarily-arrested-syrian-regime-forces-enar
[13] https://www.equaltimes.org/in-cyprus-violence-against-asylum?lang=en
[SG1]Do we still need to keep track of COVID19 cases?